The New American
April 26, 1999 Dennis Behreandt

Y2K Is Here!

The end began quietly enough. Sometime after 11 o'clock p.m., party-goers in Auckland, New Zealand were still celebrating the coming new year. Northward, across the South Pacific, it was much the same in Suva, capital of the Fiji Islands. But as clocks in both locales ticked over to 12:00 a.m., the chorus of cheers from the revelers was suddenly enveloped by an eerie darkness as the flow of electricity abruptly halted. In Suva and Auckland, and in many other exotic locales that share the same time zone, those who were awake to greet the new year waited for a few moments in nervous anticipation to see if the lights would come back on. When they did not, some began to wonder how widespread the outage was and went to the phones to check in with family members. But the phones were dead, too. What they didn't know and, in fact, would only learn over the next few chaotic days, was that the whole of their island nations had been cut off from rest of the globe. Meanwhile, the rest of the world continued to wait for the new year, nearly oblivious to what was happening in New Zealand and Fiji.
       By the time the first reports of trouble in New Zealand reached Australia, it was too late. A few Internet sites carried short, speculative reports, but they reached only a very limited audience and further, it was by then only a few minutes before midnight. Those minutes ticked by and Sydney, along with the whole eastern third of Australia, plus Papua New Guinea, plunged into the chaotic darkness already afflicting the other South Pacific islands. And hour by hour, accompanied at first by nervous anticipation, then dread realization, darkness swept over the earth. Chaos reigned, life was imperiled, and freedom, such as it was, succumbed to tyranny.
      

Preventive Measures

The above scenario is not the plot of some new Hollywood disaster movie, but is, in fact, what a surprising number of people believe will actually happen as the world rings in the year 2000. Sparked by the "Millennium Bug" - Y2K - the culmination of this chaos is what some on the Internet call "The End Of The World As We Know It" (TEOTWAWKI).
       One of the most prominent proponents of this frightening position has been newsletter writer Gary North. In his report Blind Man's Bluff in the Year 2000, North writes, "We are heading for a disaster greater than anything the world has experienced since the bubonic plague of the mid-14th century." North's publisher, Bruce Tippery, adds that Y2K will "be known as the greatest social, political, and financial crisis mankind has faced since the great plagues of the 14th century that wiped out one-third of Europe." This disaster is unavoidable, according to North, because "the Y2K problem is systemic. It cannot be fixed."
       In confronting a problem that cannot be fixed, the only logical course of action is to make arrangements to pick up the pieces after the disaster has occurred. We cannot take any action that will prevent the occurrence of a tornado, for instance, and it would be pointless to try. So we accept the damage it inflicts and try our best to put our lives back together afterward.
       But Y2K is not like a tornado. The "disaster" can be prevented, and the evidence of that truth is all around us. For example, the vast majority of American firms and most firms around the world are spending significant amounts of money, time, and effort to fix their computers and make them Y2K compliant. The fact that these companies are trying to fix Y2K problems is direct evidence that they believe it can be fixed. While a few firms may fail completely in their efforts, and others will only partially succeed by 2000, others will finish on time and the cumulative effect of these individual firms trying to sustain their businesses through 2000 will mitigate the effects of the Millennium bug for the whole of society. The closer we get to the year 2000, the more apparent this becomes.

Millennium Milestones

Society has already passed some milestone dates that North and others predicted would bring the advent of Y2K disruptions. Back in November 1997, the consulting firm Data Dimensions identified and described the "99" problem in its Millennium Journal, noting that "'99' frequently was used to mean the following: end of record, end of file, error return, cancellation, start, keep forever, or other special commands." Obviously, "99" is also used to represent the year 1999. Thus, the alarmist thinking goes, when some computers encounter the year 1999 represented as the number "99," it is possible that they will perform functions other than that which was intended, including possibly shutting down.
       According to North, the first date on which the Y2K "99" problem should have had a significant impact came in the summer of 1998. In a brochure for his newsletter Remnant Review, he explained:

Warning: Fiscal years arrive before calendar years do. Fiscal years for most states roll over on July 1. Fiscal year 99 rolls over on July 1, 1998 in most state budgets. If just one state shuts down because its computers are programmed to read 99 as end of run, the bank run will begin in that state no later than July 2, 1998. It will spread to the whole world when depositors realize that the entire payments system - and most governments - will shut down no later than the year 2000.

Changing Minds

Predictably, some major Y2K authorities have begun to back down on predictions that the Millennium bug will usher in TEOTWAWKI. Peter de Jager is one. Arguably the world's leading expert on the topic, he has discussed the Y2K problem on major U.S., Canadian, and British television networks, and has given expert testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives, the Canadian government, and the World Economic Forum.
       In fact, de Jager put Y2K on the world's radar screen with his 1993 article in Computer World, "Doomsday 2000," in which he claimed, "We [information systems professionals] and our computers were supposed to make life easier; this was our promise. What we have delivered is a catastrophe." On May 14, 1996, he brought this message to the House of Representatives' Committee on Science, whom he told: "We have no further time for unjustified optimism. Nor have we time for cautious optimism. We have time only for a highly accelerated sense of urgency, a meagre allotment of time rapidly slipping away."
       Enough progress has been made, however, that de Jager now feels that a Y2K disaster will not occur. In his 1998 article "You're Sick of the Game!" published on his web site, he asked, "Will we fix everything? Of course not. But I honestly believe the mission-critical stuff will get done. And where it doesn't get done, work-arounds can, and will, be found." In a March 1, 1999 web article, "Doomsday Avoided," de Jager reiterated: "The next 12 months or so are going to be fascinating to watch. But it will not, contrary to the ravings found in some of the media reports and in many places on the Internet, be TEOTWAWKI.... Through hard work and effort, we've broken the back of Y2K." He further amended that statement a few weeks later, saying, "We've avoided global bank failures, global power outages and global communications collapse. These 'Doomsday Scenarios' ... have been avoided. That's good news and needs to be stated loudly and strongly."
       Peter de Jager is not the only one changing his mind. In May 1998, the computer journal TechWeek published the article "Doomsday Fears About Y2K," in which writer Amara D. Angelica painted a bleak picture about an impending Y2K catastrophe. The journal's editor in chief, Tim Graham, later had to admit, "Our story did not measure up to the journalistic standards we hope to achieve here at TechWeek.... We should have presented a substantially more balanced story, with sober analysis from experts who are more sanguine about our chances of fixing Y2K programing glitches before it's too late." Graham's own view of potential Y2K problems was more balanced than those in the article: "My personal sense, supported by official government forecasts, is that the Y2K problem is real and that it will take a lot of time, money, and effort to fix.... But life will go on. The Y2K problems will be fixed, even if there are temporary disruptions."
       Few experts are saying that Y2K warnings have been all hype. But what most have come to realize is that the problem is not static. In the past, Peter de Jager warned, "The code is broken.... If we don't fix it, then we face unpleasant consequences." Thankfully, the problem has not been ignored. Today de Jager states: "Most, not all, companies are working on this issue. They are fixing, or have fixed, their systems. They have examined, or are examining, their embedded systems problems. We are, for the most part, no longer ignoring Y2K."

Fedgov Progress

Even federal agencies are making progress. Just how much progress can be seen by comparing past and present Y2K report cards generated by the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology. On June 2, 1998, the committee, chaired by Congressman Stephen Horn (R-CA), announced that the federal government, at that time and as a whole, merited a grade of "F" for its Y2K preparations. But the subcommittee's most recent report card gives the federal government an overall grade of "C+" - an improvement to be sure, but with less than a year to go, not good enough.
       In this newest report card, 18 federal agencies scored B- or higher, with 11 receiving a grade of A- or higher. Three agencies - the Department of State, the Department of Transportation, and the Agency for International Development - received Fs. Interestingly, the Department of Defense has finally earned better than a D, breaking into the ranks of mediocrity with a C-.
       While it is surprising that the federal government is doing as well as it is (after all, it is an inherently inefficient bureaucracy), private enterprise, as would be expected, is doing much better:

• According to the U.S. Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, "the financial services sector ranks ahead of virtually all other industries in its remediation and testing efforts." The American Bankers Association (ABA) notes, "The banking industry will be ready for the switch to the new millennium.... It will be business as usual during the change to 2000."
• In Transportation, the Senate Year 2000 Committee found that "all the major transportation players - the biggest operators, the largest facilities, the federal agencies, etc. - have substantial Y2K programs underway. In all these programs, the emphasis is first on safety. All of these entities are well on the way to being 'Y2K ready' on their own." Additionally, the committee found that the rumor that railroad switches could no longer be operated manually was untrue: "The Committee staff heard from multiple sources that essentially all automated switches have manual overrides (no source could identify one which didn't)." Airplanes, too, will be able to function in 2000. Boeing announced that its "airplanes will continue to fly safely when the clock strikes midnight in the year 2000." Airbus Industries declared that it "is confident that only a few minor issues need to be addressed" regarding the year 2000 and its aircraft. And maritime transportation should still function efficiently in 2000. Glen Nekvasil, an official with the Lake Carriers' Association (a trade association representing the 11 companies operating U.S.-Flag vessels on the Great Lakes), told The New American, "[W]e are not planning on going to anchor at 0001 on 1/1/2000."
• In the telecommunications sector, the Senate committee found that "initial interoperability testing indicates that the U.S. communications will transition without significant problems. Currently, more than 80% of public network systems have been tested and are considered compliant." Peter de Jager concurs: "Bottom line? Dial tone is secure, but don't expect your bills on time. Any complaints?"
• The utilities are also doing well. The Senate committee found that "while some compliance efforts are behind, the utility industry as a whole is configured to handle interruptions, blackouts, and natural disasters. A prolonged nationwide blackout is not likely to occur." The Senate committee was concerned about smaller rural electric companies, but the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, made up of those small firms, is optimistic: "We expect to deliver the same reliable service in the year 2000 that we deliver now."

"Invisible" Solutions

In an earlier report on Y2K for The New American, this writer observed, "There is no telling what free enterprise can accomplish when unhampered by government restrictions." As Adam Smith noted in The Wealth of Nations, though individual business owners and corporations have only their own interests in mind in operating their businesses, their activities nevertheless benefit the whole of society. The business owner is, in effect, "led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention." Thus, as each firm seeks to ensure that its own operations survive the transition to 2000 intact, the collective result of the majority of firms doing so, through self-interest, will be that society as a whole survives Y2K.
       Y2K alarmists dutifully repeat the mantra that there is no "silver bullet" with which to repair Y2K. But new technologies continue to appear which make repairs easier. A product from the small Massachusetts firm Data Integrity is one such technology. The product, known as Millennium Solution, can, according to the company, reduce by as much as 80 percent the time needed to perform some Y2K repairs.
       Self-interest has also led inventor Patrick Bossert to develop an ingenious device that can perform a similar miracle with embedded chips. Financial newsletter writer Donald S. McAlvany (who once wrote that "the year 2000 represents the meltdown of our high-tech computerized world") summed up the problem with embedded chips in February 1998: "There are billions of embedded computer chips all over the world. Most are not date sensitive, but some are, and no one can tell where they all are and how many will fail." But the new invention from Bossert (who as a 12-year-old in 1981 wrote a book explaining how to systematically solve Rubik's Cube) can do just that. The device, called the Delta-T probe, can identify the functions being performed by an embedded processor, including whether or not the chip performs a date sensitive calculation. It can also pinpoint how likely the chip is to fail and how severe such a failure might be. The Delta-T probe is already in wide use in England by such companies as British Airways and Sainsbury's supermarkets, with great success according to Trefor Hales, retail systems director for the supermarket chain. "We have been working on the Millennium bug since 1995, and thanks to the Delta-T probe, we have confirmed that the work we have done on equipment with embedded chips has been spot-on," Hales said.

Dangerous Reactions

While Y2K is a legitimate problem, and some temporary disturbances may result from it, it will clearly not usher us to the end of the world as we know it. A greater problem is the reaction to Y2K that might come from governmental authorities. See Mock-Up for Martial Law .)
       The Senate's Year 2000 report states that "the nation may be called upon to assist its neighbors in cases of severe Y2K impact. The U.S. has traditionally been one of the strongest supporters of humanitarian aid around the globe. It is unlikely that we will turn our back on the international community in the aftermath of Y2K." Further, Senator Robert F. Bennett (R-UT), chairman of the Senate committee that put the report together, has called for Y2K foreign aid in the past. In a Washington Times op-ed, Bennett stated, "What is called for is a plan for global triage. The world's wealthy nations will be called on to provide resources and expertise."
       No matter what internationalist, socialist wealth transfer scheme the federal government may try to shackle us with, one thing is clear: America as we know it will not cease to exist as we cross the barrier to the year 2000.