Page last updated January 1, 2000
As time goes on I expect more and more experts will be changing their minds.
| Peter de Jager | Noted Y2k prophet, Peter de Jager is singing a new tune in 1999. |
| Gartner Research Group | A major doom and gloom prognostication organization has apparently changed their mind. |
| Michael Hyatt | Noted Y2K alarmist, Michael S. Hyatt, hedged his bet in the final weeks of 1999. |
Peter de Jager
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"We [information systems professionals] and our computers were supposed
to make life easier; this was our promise. What we have delivered is a
catastrophe."
"We have no further time for unjustified optimism. Nor have we time for cautious optimism. We have time only for a highly accelerated sense of urgency, a meagre allotment of time rapidly slipping away."
"Will we fix everything? Of course not. But I honestly believe the mission-critical stuff will get done. And where it doesn't get done, work-arounds can, and will, be found."
"The next 12 months or so are going to be fascinating to watch. But it will not, contrary to the ravings found in some of the media reports and in many places on the Internet, be The End of the Word As We Know It ... Through hard work and effort, we've broken the back of Y2K."
"We've avoided global bank failures, global power outages and global communications collapse. These 'Doomsday Scenarios' ... have been avoided. That's good news and needs to be stated loudly and strongly."
"I don't buy the notion of Y2K disruptions lasting 6 to 120 months. I can imagine no reasonable scenario where such lengthy disruptions are feasible. Are they possible? Sure! In the same way it's possible for you to get four flat tires at the same time. That's possible, but I don't see too many people carrying four spares in the back of their car... just in case it happens."
However, it should be noted that de Jager still advocates stockpiling a 2-3 week supply of food and other necessities just in case. It strikes me that de Jager is a bit guilty of trying to have it both ways.
Gartner Research Group
-
"[C]atastrophic failures will not occur everywhere in January 2000 ...
failures in less developed countries, smaller companies, and companies
with high global dependencies will cause a negative impact to the world
economy."
"The script for Y2K is all wrong. Instead of Y2K failures occurring at midnight on Dec. 31, they will be spread over a 30-month period that will begin in July"
"Gartner said system failures related to the computer glitch will probably cause only isolated problems for people in developed countries including the United States and in most of Western Europe."
Gartner gloom and doom predictions have been coming up wrong throughout 1999. Here is a sampling:
"European governments and public sector organizations have only spent
between five and 10 percent of what it needs to fix their systems.
The public sector is the biggest danger here. They're not doing the work
at all. ... Hospitals, government procurement, defense procurement,
welfare, are areas where we'll see disruption from the end of this year.
The Dutch, Swedes and the Irish have done a good job, but very few European
governments can stand up to scrutiny. They've been saying a lot but not
really doing much."
"The millennium computer problem is going to start manifesting itself as
we cross into 1999. There will also be clusters of problems at key dates
like the end of the first quarter."
See The Y2k Reality Check concerning this prediction.
"[T]he causes [for Y2K failures to begin in July] will be forecasting
software that looks six months into the future, the beginning of new
fiscal years for many corporations and some date-related anomalies in
software code."
"The number of Y2K failures will increase further in October as
forecasting software that looks three months ahead runs up against the Jan. 1, 2000,
date and still more companies begin new fiscal years"
Michael S. Hyatt
-
"I'd love to say the Y2K optimism sweeping our land is justified -- but
I can't. The plain facts about Y2K-readiness paint a much more somber
picture. I'm afraid Y2K optimism is based mostly on wishful thinking. And I'm
afraid millions of citizens will be shocked -- shocked! -- to discover early
next year that politicians and business leaders have been lying to them about Y2K."
"What I really expect is that things will shake out somewhere in the middle. In other words, I anticipate that things will be worse that we are being told but not quite as bad as we fear. If nothing much happens, I will be delighted -- and truly surprised. (These kinds of surprises I can handle!) But if it's worse than I expect, I will be disappointed but prepared. How about you?"
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