The Andy Hogue Jump Site >> Election 2002: Analysis, 11/7/02

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Election 2002 Analysis
North Texas Daily, 11/8/02
Gainesville Daily Register, 11/02

The Democrats indeed had a "dream team." But the dream turned into a nightmare Tuesday night.

Ron Kirk, John Sharp and even Tony Sanchez are men to be admired. The Dems assumed us this combination of political experience, bipartisan popularity and race was the recipe for victory. Why didn't they win?

As much as liberal political analysts insist, the "war" on terrorism isn’t the only reason the GOP won races across the nation. I think solidarity was the main reason for the Republican landslide.

Much of the current economic downturn is blamed on "gridlock," and not necessarily a particular party's ideology. Sen. Jim Jefford's defection from the GOP caused an imbalance of power in the Senate, which led to some difficulties in passing legislation to help the economy. Perhaps the desire for a united front is also an aftershock of 9-11.

Since the sitting president is a Republican, I'm fairly certain that many people voted straight party to support him. In Denton County, for example, 56,000 out of 105,000 votes cast were straight-party. While it is normal for about half of the votes in Denton County to be straight-party, Democrats were counting on ticket splitters to help them out.

I predicted a narrow victory for conservative Democrat John Sharp, candidate for lieutenant governor. Several Republican office-holders and insiders jumped ship to support him over Republican nominee David Dewhurst. Yet the straight-party ratio remained the same. Dewhurst beat Sharp 67 percent to 31 percent.

Republicans knew about the "dream team" and were scared into action. The Democrats, in turn, thought they had a chance to unseat the Republican regime and mobilized record numbers of volunteers and posted more campaign signs than I ever saw before. This tight race inspired many of those who usually only vote in the presidential elections to go vote.

The Democrats relied on some flawed concepts in order to win:

More Money. Democrat Tony Sanchez introduced a mass media campaign as early as the spring, spending nearly $64 million. Republican Governor Rick Perry countered with $23 million.

Negative campaigning. All that money and all it bought was a fistful of mud to sling. If voters paid attention to the mudslinging, the Libertarians and Greens would have fared much better. I don't think the slam-fest had anything to do with Perry's victory, nor Sanchez' defeat. I don't believe Perry's videotaped impatience with the Highway Patrol nor Sanchez' alleged drug cartel financing changed enough minds to be a significant factor.

Playing the Race Card. It didn't work. I was glad to see a Hispanic candidate run for governor and even more glad to see Ron Kirk run for Senate. But the Democrats should have promoted principle over ethnicity. Democrats targeted cities with high amounts of racial minorities and blanketed them with campaign signs. But this alone won't cause a sleeping voting bloc to rise up and go to the polls. Voters must be treated equally (language differences aside).

Lame gimmicks. The "Let's make history" campaign was painfully obvious. Usually, a candidate runs on a slate with his or her running mate (i.e. Clinton/Gore, Perry/Dewhurst). The Democrats decided to pick their two racial minorities for the "history" campaign, leaving poor ol' Sharp in the dust. Ironically, Sharp picked up more votes than Kirk or Sanchez.

(Now before you accuse the voters of choosing white men over minorities, Republican Railroad Commissioner incumbent Michael Williams received 69% of the vote and Texas Supreme Court Justice Dale Wainwright received 72% -- both are black.)

"Sportsmen for Sanchez," was a crappy effort to convince NRA members and game hunters to vote Democratic. Still, the GOP remains the party of private property and gun rights.

Both parties were surprised this year. We can learn from this campaign cycle that mudslinging isn’t the solution, tricking people into voting backfires and an office cannot be bought with record-breaking spending.

This election was won simply by the hard work of volunteers and alignment with a popular president. Thanks to all of you who made this season exciting for all of us.