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Tim Hortons: A new rival for Starbucks?

          Emerging as Canada’s top coffee house from the famous Toronto Maple Leaf superstar, Tim Hortons (THI) has slowly emerged to become a top competitor among not only coffee stops, but restaurants as well. Serving items ranging from top soups to salads to sandwiches among the common accessories of pastries, desserts, and of course coffee, Tim Hortons looks to gain some market share of such a booming industry.
         Recently spun off from Wendy’s into its newly created public sharing market, Tim Hortons is pretty much even from where it started last March. While some investors may argue that the company is poor for the lack of movement, typically, with the exclusion of financial stocks, most newly proposed IPOs tend to be priced at too high of a price relative to the demand of potential shareholders and thus fall during the beginning stages of the company’s initiation. In the case of Tim Hortons, with the added bonus of a cease in a shareholder relationship with Wendy’s, this company, free to move at will, has the potential with the added shares from Wendy’s shareholders to reach maximum capital gains by looking at the potential this company has.
         Situated in Canada with few other locations in Maine and other northern American States, if Tim Hortons is able to sustain favorable margins relative other competitors and expand into Southern portions of the United States and other nations, Tim Hortons will not only experience favorable economics of scale, but excellent fundamentals in return. With prices considerably lower for items such as coffee and pastries, if Tim Hortons is able to expand as a multinational corporation, consumers will absolutely be making the switch from giants like Starbucks to Tim Hortons, which already has a favorable name consumers can relate too. If such a proposition (which is very likely) is able to be preformed, look for shares of Tim Hortons to skyrocket with increasing fundamentals making this company a potentially incredible investment at its current price with an unlimited ceiling of how far it can grow, making Tim Hortons an excellent long term investment.
         For speculators however, Tim Hortons may not be the most favorable opportunity in terms of the short run. With the United States close to entering into a recession when consumers will be paying less for luxury items such as high priced coffee in favor of more bargain products, companies like Tim Hortons may not be so desirable for investors looking to cash in after a few months to a year. Fundamentals do look poor for this company as well which may make it less desirable for institutions. However, the fact is that since Tim Hortons is relatively new, it will take some time for revenue or profit to grow substantially, and there may be some negative activity in terms of margins (especially operating ones) while the company initially is put on market. However, if the company does expand as suggested and achieves economics of scale, fundamentals should not be a problem whatsoever.
         Thus, with a strong potential highly accessible for this company desiring a spark for amazing returns, should be a key player in the stock market in the coming five to ten years. I would not recommend this stock for short term buyers, especially at a price of 27 points, but for long term investors, even at 27, I would advocate taking the risk and seeing your profits sore with a trusted company that Tim Hortons entails in the distant future.

-Dennis Biray
October 6th, 2006

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